在女性偏好更高受教育水平配偶和男性偏好受教育水平比自己更低的配偶的传统婚姻模式下,更多接受了高等教育的女性就面对相对减少的潜在配偶供给。

  高校扩招不仅使大学生和研究生入学人数迅速增加,性别结构也发生了重要变化:接受高等教育推迟了进入婚姻市场,搜寻失败的概率提高;女性在高等教育群体中开始占主导地位,在传统的婚姻模式下,进一步增大匹配困难和失败的风险;劳动力市场成功降低了她们的婚姻收益。本文用人口普查数据分析了研究生的婚姻选择,用城镇住户调查数据分析了本科生的婚姻选择,发现高校扩招对婚姻市场的不利影响是显著的。

  高校扩招如何影响婚姻市场

  高校扩招增加了全社会人力资本存量,为经济增长提供了动力,对家庭来说,让孩子接受高等教育是不错的人力资本投资。但受教育时间延长却给婚姻市场带来冲击:接受高等教育不仅推迟进入婚姻市场,也占用女性生命周期上最佳生育年龄阶段。大多数省市的法定结婚年龄为男22岁,女20岁。根据中国学制,本科生会在22-23岁毕业,研究生会在25岁以后毕业。2001年12月,《计划生育法》颁布,各省市据此设定本地区晚婚界限,大多为男性25岁和女性23岁。大多数人的学业与婚嫁不会同时进行,而是完成高等教育后才进入婚姻市场,那么,延续到“法定结婚年龄”甚至“晚婚年龄”以上的高等教育就挤占了本应用于婚姻市场搜寻的时间,使搜寻成功的概率降低。

  高校扩招影响婚姻市场的途径为:第一是规模增大。1998年以前,大学招生人数在适龄人口队列中的比例不到5%,研究生招生人数甚至不到千分之二,这个小群体的婚姻问题不会产生大的社会影响和关注。然而,2013年,大学招生超过700万人,约占适龄人口队列的44%;研究生招生61.1万,占适龄人口队列的约4%;这个规模已无法忽视。虽然大学扩招限于高中生规模而放缓,但研究生招生数量仍在持续上升之中。第二是性别结构变化。高校扩招后,女大学生和女研究生不仅数量在增加,在高校新入学者中的比例也持续提高:2010年,18-34岁队列受高等教育群体中,随年龄下降女性由45.9%上升到54.3%。第三,她们是中国受教育水平最高的青年人口,无论是人口学还是社会学意义上,都是中华民族的精英。这使高学历女性的婚姻问题不容忽视。

  传统的人力资本文献讨论个体在劳动力市场的回报,近年来的文献延伸到更广阔的社会和婚姻市场的回报。微观个体提高教育水平是为了实现效用最大化,这取决于两个市场的成功:第一,在劳动力市场上取得体面就业岗位和高收入;第二,在婚姻市场上嫁得体面和高收入丈夫。市场收入和婚姻匹配状况,都取决于受教育水平的高低。对男女双方来说,在考虑了收入、闲暇和家庭内劳动后,成立家庭带来的效用要大于不结婚时各自效用的总和。否则,双方会维持独身状态。

  经验显示,受教育水平提高可以带来劳动力市场上的优势:既有更低的失业率,又有更高的收入水平。在婚姻市场上,搜寻高收入丈夫这个“产出”也和女性受教育水平正相关:受教育高的女性更可能竞争到高收入丈夫,但却有更高的搜寻失败风险——高学历女性不愿“下嫁”,降低了预期婚姻收益。在同时考虑了两个市场的风险(成本)与收益后,受教育水平的选择就是个资源有限条件下的最优配置问题。如果受教育水平到了某个阶段:劳动力市场收入与婚姻收益(丈夫的收入×嫁人的概率)开始出现替代,这时,再增加女性的教育就是过度教育。

  我们的分析表明,本科生和研究生的边际教育回报率在劳动力市场和婚姻市场上都在递减,但收益率依然为正值。

  为何剩女超过剩男?

  统计显示,2000-2010年,男女研究生的结婚率都在显著下降。2010年,女研究生的结婚率下降到50%以下。在25-34岁这个适婚阶段下降尤其明显。由于研究生在不同年份招生数量不同,比较总样本中结婚率的变化,只能提供一个大致信息。

  可推断,30-34岁和35-39岁队列,在读研究生会越来越少。这两个年龄组中有配偶的比例在2005-2010年期间下降幅度比2000-2005年更大。本文使用2000-2005年数据分析研究生婚姻的变化趋势,会低估2005年以后的真实下降趋势。换言之,女研究生今天在婚姻市场匹配失败的情形可能比本文估计结果更严重。

  结婚率有“有配偶”和“有婚姻经历”两种统计方式,本文使用的是“有配偶”。一些学者发现,高学历女性并不是不结婚而是结婚年龄推迟。在当前的数据条件下,对估计结果的解读要更加谨慎。为确保估计结果既符合事实,又有足够的样本数量,需要对年龄区间进行选择:年龄太小,研究生还没有进入婚姻市场或者还允许他/她有进一步搜寻的可能;选择年龄队列的策略,要同时兼顾估计效率和足够样本。

  高等教育迅速扩展的过程中,性别结构发生了显著变化。1998年以前,无论是大学生还是研究生,男性都占显著优势,高校扩招以来,女性接受高等教育的人数增加更快,缩小了性别差距。在30岁以上年龄组中,无论是本科生还是研究生,男性的比例都在60%甚至70%以上,然而,近年来,在年轻人口群体中,男本科生的比例下降到50%,男研究生甚至下降到44%~46%。女研究生在数量上已超过男性。

  如果男性偏好受教育水平相当或略低的配偶——传统的婚姻匹配模式,在35岁以上的本科生和研究生中,因男性比例更高,女性容易找到相匹配的配偶;在34岁以下的年轻群体中,性别比变得对女性不利,如果匹配模式不变,则接受了高等教育的女性,更难找到相应配偶。尤其是女研究生,她们同时面临年龄增大和候选配偶减少双重风险。

  婚姻市场上不同受教育群体是怎样匹配的呢?按照婚姻阶层假说,在正常情况下,男女都会偏好同一个阶层的异性。但是,如果男性突然减少,则男性会娶到更多高阶层的女性。第一次世界大战导致法国的青年男子显著减少,高阶层的女性只好“下嫁”低阶层的男性。

  将受教育水平作为其所处阶层的代理变量,表1显示,2000年和2005年,婚姻匹配的基本模式是丈夫的受教育水平高于妻子。根据显示性偏好,大多数女性选择受教育水平相当或更高的男性作丈夫,在接受了高等教育的女性中,这个偏好仍然存在,而且没有发生改变的迹象:2000年,受教育程度为大专的女性,其丈夫受教育程度相等或更高的比例为69.2%,2005年为73.6%;受教育程度为本科的女性,其丈夫受教育程度相等或更高的比例在这两个年份分别为64.4%和65%;女研究生能嫁的丈夫最高受教育分类也是研究生,两个年份的比例分别为48.1%和48.6%。接受了高等教育的女性,对丈夫的受教育程度要求没有随着高学历男性供给的相对减少而改变:如果找不到受教育程度相当或更高的丈夫,她们可能会选择单身。

  反过来,男性则愿意找一个受教育水平低于自己的妻子,男性受教育程度越高,妻子受教育程度低于自己的比例越大。高校扩招改变了高等教育群体的性别比,但女性寻找配偶的模式并未变化,使她们匹配失败的风险增大。面对女大学毕业生的增加,男性在婚姻市场上的匹配模式开始发生变化:受教育程度为大专的男性,其妻子受教育程度相等或更高的比例,由38.4%上升到47.3%;受教育程度为本科的男性,其妻子受教育水平相等或更高的比例由30.1%上升到38%;男研究生的妻子为研究生的比例,也从2000年的17.3%上升到22.6%。

  婚姻市场上,5年时间在经验上不算长,但可以谨慎判断:男性已开始根据变化了的环境,调整自己的配偶选择,而女性对配偶的选择还没有表现出明显的变化。这可能是“剩女”现象比“剩男”更严重的原因。女性是否会随着时间延长作出调整以适应婚姻市场的供求变化,还有待更新的大样本数据来分析。

  女性偏好更高受教育水平的丈夫和在高等教育中开始占据主导地位,女性在婚姻市场上面对高学历男性的相对减少似乎更缺少预期调整上的弹性,使她们的结婚率下降。我们选择25-44岁人口群体作为观测对象,比较不同调查(或普查)年份,男性和女性有配偶的比例及其变化。发现每个受教育群体有配偶的比例都在下降,但受教育水平更高的群体,下降幅度也更大,且性别差异明显:男性研究生有配偶的比例,由2000年的77.8%下降到2010年的65%;女性研究生的比例则从76.5%下降到了61.8%。25岁以后,是研究生的适婚年龄,但是有近40%的女性没有结婚。

  根据中国劳动力市场和婚姻市场环境发生的变化,我们提出的解释为:

  1.受教育时间延长,使高学历女性推迟进入婚姻市场搜寻,而生命周期的自然约束,缩短了其生育子女的时间,搜寻失败和因沮丧而退出婚姻市场的风险增大。

  可以进而推论为:高等教育(包括研究生教育)会推迟男女进入婚姻市场的年龄,那么,沮丧效应既发生在女性中,也发生在男性中。同时出现“剩男”和“剩女”现象。

  第二个推论是:高校扩招改变了男性占主导的性别结构,在女性偏好更高受教育水平配偶和男性偏好受教育水平比自己更低的配偶的传统婚姻模式下,更多接受了高等教育的女性就面对相对减少的潜在配偶供给,导致更低的结婚率。“剩女”更严重。

  2.追求效用最大化的女性,提高受教育水平是为了在婚姻市场上提高竞争力,嫁收入更高的丈夫;但是,提高受教育水平也让她在劳动力市场上收入更高,搜寻失败的风险增大。这是人力资本投资在婚姻市场上的失败。

  推论:随着研究生规模持续扩大和女性占主导,女研究生不结婚的比例和数量,会进一步提高。从全社会视角看,女性的教育水平选择是一个受限最优化问题,存在过度投资的可能性。

  本文使用2000年第五次人口普查和2005年1%人口抽样调查微观数据,以及2002年-2009年的城镇住户调查微观数据,来检验所提出的解释和推论。

  扩招影响婚姻的机制

  谁受到了高校扩招的影响?这个影响又怎样传递到婚姻市场,使这个次级群体的结婚率下降?这是本文要解决的核心问题。2000年-2005年期间,扩招后的研究生开始进入婚姻市场,对本科生和大专生来说,只有最接近1999年入学的队列才开始进入婚姻市场。本文使用人口普查数据重点分析研究生群体。只要接受高等教育并挤占婚姻市场搜寻时间,就会增大受教育者因沮丧而退出的风险,本文在使用城镇住户调查数据检验扩招效应时,因研究生样本过少,只分析本科生和大专生的婚姻选择。

  扩招影响婚姻的机制为:女研究生比例增加,使得能与之“般配”的男性变得更少。婚姻市场的供求模型中,如果把女性视为供给方,男性为需求方。女研究生供给曲线右移和需求曲线左移,会导致“市场价格”下降。如果女研究生将搜寻“合适丈夫”视为像搜寻工作岗位一样,有一个“(丈夫)保留工资”,且不愿降低——维持传统婚姻匹配模式,则搜寻失败的概率会比扩招前增大——婚姻预期收入下降了。这是女研究生在婚姻市场“价格下降”的经验内容。扩招是逐年增大的,扩招后录取的研究生分布在某个年龄段,在这个年龄段,受扩招影响的密度随着年龄增大而减弱,超过这个年龄段,扩招的影响消失。由于研究生人数在邻近队列中的变化是连续的,2005年数据中的25-34岁群体,越接近34岁队列,受扩招的影响越小,“干预效应”会递减。

  (一)检验:搜寻困难导致结婚率下降

  微观数据只显示被调查者的婚姻状态,有婚姻经历者才回答“初婚时间”并计算出初婚年龄。把一个城市的“平均初婚年龄”视为“搜寻难度”的代理变量,则平均初婚年龄越大的城市,说明在婚姻市场上搜寻的时间越长,因沮丧退出的概率越高。

  我们观察了全国342个城市里,不同受教育群体的平均初婚年龄和结婚率之间的关系,发现无论是2000年还是2005年,两者都存在显著的负相关。受教育水平越高,系数的绝对值越大。2005年的系数又显著大于2000年。

  (二)检验:高校扩招对婚姻选择的影响

  扩招影响了25-34岁队列的婚姻市场选择,但不影响更大的35-44岁队列。如果分教育程度考察两个队列在此期间的结婚率变化,可以看出,每个次级群体内的结婚率都在下降,显然,当进入婚姻市场的研究生供给增加时,搜寻成功的概率加速下降了:尤其是新进入的研究生,女性所占比例提高。所有四个受教育群体(高中生、大专生、本科和研究生)在此期间的结婚率都显著下降了,25-34岁女研究生的交互项系数(绝对值)最大:女性的结婚率下降了12.8%,而男性只下降了9.8%。

  然而,当所有的次级群体内怀疑受到扩招干预的年轻队列都有下降的结婚态势时,我们并不能准确把握扩招对婚姻的真正影响,只有控制了不受扩招影响群体的婚姻变化趋势后,“剩下的效应”才是扩招导致的。

  扩招后入学的研究生,在2005年大多处于25-34岁队列,全面进入婚姻市场;扩招后入学的本科生和专科生,在1999年为19-21岁,到2005年,变成25-27岁,开始进入婚姻市场。从受到干预的密度看,他们不如研究生群体那么强:在25-34岁本专科生群体内,只有偏向年轻队列(25岁)一端的样本,才可能受到了高校扩招的影响。本文用两种策略侦测干预密度不同产生的影响:第一,扩展对控制组的选择,察看扩招的影响;第二,分队列观察,预期随着年龄增大,三次交互项系数会缩小并变得不显著。

  城镇住户调查数据虽然时间跨度和人口普查数据不完全一致,但估计结果却是基本一致的:随着本科生越来越多地进入婚姻市场,他们结婚的概率显著下降且幅度变得越来越大。

  大专与本科同时录取,但学制为2-3年,大专生毕业时,年龄要小于本科毕业生,他/她有更长的婚姻市场搜寻时间,应该有相对更高的搜寻成功率。对高校扩招干预密度的测量结果显示:受到扩招干预越强的年轻队列,在婚姻市场上受到的影响越大。

  假定女性在选择受教育程度时,同时考虑了劳动力市场收益和婚姻收益,把所嫁丈夫的收入视为婚姻收益——这是个简单测量,那么,她所接受的教育程度就是一个理性选择的结果。本文对女性的教育程度分阶段考察收益率,从而对劳动力市场和婚姻市场上是否出现过度教育进行判断。

  把婚姻市场和劳动力市场的教育收益率放在一起比较可以推断,对女性来说,教育程度超过大专以后,同时面临教育收益率的下降,尤其是在本科到研究生阶段,婚姻市场的收益率更低。

  接受高等教育的女性不结婚概率显著提高

  通过国际比较发现,2010年,日韩等发达国家,25-34岁人口中接受高等教育的比例在60%左右,而中国只有18.5%,巨大的差距,既是追赶的空间和动力,也是我们相信今天高等教育规模并未过度的依据。扩大高等教育规模,提高劳动者素质,使其在市场上有更强的适应性,从而降低他们在结构转型和产业升级中面临的风险。全社会人力资本提高则是经济增长的推动因素。因此,进一步扩大高等教育规模,方向是正确的。但对扩招的过程及其影响,要作深入的研究和处理,因为扩招对婚姻市场的不利影响已经显现出来,对热衷于经济增长并不断寻求增长源泉的各级政府来说,这个负面影响还没有引起关注。

  发达国家高等教育走过的历程显示,女性会占据主导地位,其劳动力市场参与率因受教育水平提高而不断提高。中国高等教育的性别结构逆转,在更短的时间内发生了。中国女性的劳动参与率,一直在国际上处于较高水平,这个传统,会激励那些接受了高等教育的女性,参与劳动力市场,甚至占据那些竞争激烈的工作岗位,这限制了她们投入家庭的时间。从一定意义上说,那些接受了高等教育的“剩女”,大多是劳动力市场上的成功者,中国也显示出同样的特征。

  接受高等教育的女性不结婚的概率显著提高了。在中国劳动年龄人口开始减少,总和生育率远低于更替水平的条件下,中国会遭遇多重损失:首先会进一步减少出生人口数量,而且,减少的恰恰是潜在最优家庭的人口。这群最有生物学和社会学优势的人口没有出生,阻断了家庭内人力资本的代际传递——受教育程度高的父母更利于子女教育。从微观层面看,这些不结婚者进入老年时,即使能为自己积累足够的养老金,也会缺少家庭内的照料和安慰,面临更高的身心健康风险。

  三十多年的人口控制政策导致严重的性别失衡,男性更多导致的婚姻挤压及社会风险,一直是社会各界关注的问题。接受高等教育的女性,无论是出于自愿还是环境所迫,事实上选择了单身,进一步加重了男性的独身状态——主要是那些低教育群体,增加了潜在的社会风险,如性犯罪。如果接受高等教育的男性选择不结婚,不仅挤压了接受高等教育的女性,也间接挤压了受教育层度低的男性同伴,找不到配偶。

  Bertrand等学者考察了芝加哥大学商学院的历届MBA毕业生后发现,女性为了家庭,选择竞争不太激烈的岗位,或者退出了竞争激烈的岗位,随着时间延长,与男同学的收入差距拉大。那些没有结婚的女性毕业生,则可以一直坚持在竞争激烈的岗位上,其收入水平不亚于男同学。退出是理性选择。另一项关于女性福利的研究显示,受过大学教育的女性,幸福感最高的是“有家庭无工作者”,其次才是“有家庭有工作者”,再次是“有工作无家庭者”,最不快乐的是“无家庭无工作者”。因此,接受了高等教育的女性如果不结婚成家,无论对自身还是对社会,都是一种持续存在的风险。不可因她们今天劳动力市场的成功,而忽视了这个长期风险。

  本文研究1999年开始的高校扩招对婚姻市场的影响。由于数据限制,本文只能观测到最晚2009年的婚姻状况。我们看到,本科生和研究生的结婚率比扩招前有很大幅度的下降,男女皆然,但女性的结婚率下降幅度更大。女研究生的结婚概率下降了8-22个百分点。人口普查数据的结果显示,受到扩招干预的密度越大,结婚率下降的幅度也越大。城镇住户数据提供了一致的证据:2009年本科生结婚的概率比2002-2003年下降了18.5个百分点,女本科毕业生的结婚率甚至下降了28.6个百分点。

  从本文的研究结论能引申出什么样的政策含义呢?首先,对高校扩招的长期影响需要关注和研究,这个事件几乎影响了近一半的家庭。其次,女性在高等教育阶段占主导地位是发达国家经历过的事实,那么,应以此为出发点,寻找干预的措施,比如,能否在大学阶段,调整课程设置,对大学生进行婚育教育,帮助毕业生为参与婚姻市场和组建家庭做好准备。对那些有成立家庭意愿的年轻人,不可因其缺少相关知识和信息或者不准确期待值等原因,忽略了未来必然面临的婚姻市场选择,导致搜寻失败。

  (作者吴要武系中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所研究员;刘倩系经济学人中国研究副总监。)

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