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本站导读: 丁学良,出生于皖南农村。在国内断断续续受过不完整的小学、中学和大学教育。1984年赴美国留学,1992年获哈佛大学博士学位。现为香港科技大学教授,卡内基国际和平基金会高级研究员,国立澳大利亚大学亚太研究院通讯研究员。研究领域包括转型社会、比较发展和全球化。

 

  

 

  受访嘉宾:丁学良,出生于皖南农村。在国内断断续续受过不完整的小学、中学和大学教育。1984年赴美国留学,1992年获哈佛大学博士学位。现为香港科技大学教授,卡内基国际和平基金会高级研究员,国立澳大利亚大学亚太研究院通讯研究员。研究领域包括转型社会、比较发展和全球化。

  采访:袁训会 共识网编辑部主任

  观点提要:

  1、任何一个人类社会,不管规模大小,都是不确定的。我认为,这既是对人类的巨大挑战,同时也是希望所在。假定人类对未来的东西充满了确定性,很多人就要自杀了,因为他知道自己肯定会完蛋,肯定会死,肯定会破产。

  2、中国这个社会最大的特点之一就是:它虽然是人类社会中最古老的、延续性最强的社会之一,但又是一个急剧变化的社会。有些变得越来越好,有些在倒退,有些基本上维持现状,你很难用一句话来概括。中国这个社会在某些方面是很怪的,是从逻辑上推不出来的。

  3、现在中国人的普遍素质已经同毛泽东时代天差地别了。这个天差地别的原因也是因为中国社会不断地改革开放,这是邓小平推动改革开放带来的客观效益,中国社会已经越来越变成世界的一部分。也就是说,中国人接受信息的来源多元化了,他们中能读不同外语的人也在不断增加,这样就使得很多人能够通过技术吸收那些中国官方传媒之外的信息,包括资讯、图像、报道、评论乃至谣言。

  4、唱赞歌的也不仅仅就是国内的一些人,也包括一些洋人和海外华人,这些人在有独立信息来源的情况下仍然这样唱赞歌,只能说明他们中的绝大部分是属于“假装睡着了”的人。

  5、到了我这个年纪,我很坦率地来讲,从自己的专业研究,从自己读书,从自己的人生阅历,从自己接触的不同的人、不同的事,我感觉到真善美三个字中“真”是最重要的,也是最难的,没有真,后面的善和美是不可能实现的。

  6、中国成功转型有很多障碍,其中一个很重要的障碍,是太多的人,包括一些受过高等教育的人,包括非常了不起的个人,不管他拥是企业家成就也好或者是科技成就也好或者文学艺术的成就,或者有英雄主义的行为也好,他们对民主抱有一种完美主义的心态。

  7、中国的危机或者问题是串联到一起的,假如它仅仅是一个的话,反而好解决。要解决这一连串问题,要在很多领域里面做调整和改革,只有这样,问题才能慢慢得到缓解。但我想只要改起来,就会创造新的机会。

  8、客观来讲,中国体制这些年确实也有进步,只不过有些进步太慢,有些进步的取得,付出的代价太大。

  以下系采访正文:

  社会变化的不确定性是人类共通的

  袁训会:就当前来讲,不管是国内还是国际上,很多研究社会科学的人都将目光聚焦在了当下中国。我想,之所以会出现这种情况,一来是这些年来中国发展迅速,愈来愈成为一支不可忽视的力量,再有就是跟当下中国在政治和经济层面仍旧是一个过渡体制有关,而过渡可能就意味着不确定性,不知道丁老师是否赞同我的这个判断?

  丁学良:首先,我要对你的问题的第一个方面做一点解释,那就是关于“过渡体制”这个问题,我觉得有必要厘清对它的三种认识。

  首先,你说中国现在所有的体制都是过渡性的,但这个“过渡”本身怎么定义却含糊不清。应当说,“过渡”(transition/transformation)这个概念是马克思主义经典中的一个定义。

  在经典马克思主义那儿,不管是马克思本人还是列宁,甚至包括后来的斯大林、毛泽东,他们的心里边对于人类社会的变化,都有一个大致的方案,都认为人类社会的发展是有一个终极目标的。这个意义上的“过渡”指的便是遵从历史规律前提之下的过渡。在中国来讲,这一点只有到了邓小平时代才开始出现比较大的变化。也就是说,到了这个时代,很多人开始反思经典马克思主义关于人类社会发展阶段论的设想,而且经过了一两百年的试验,渐渐发现原来这套对社会的看法是错误的。

  那么,按照这样一个人类社会演进观念,出现了所谓的从低级阶段到中级阶段继而到高级阶段,也就出现了所谓的“过渡”理论。然而,建立在这种观念上的理论,及其以此为基础的各种社会、经济和政治政策等等,在过去一百多年时间里,对人类所产的影响绝大部分都被证明是负面的,甚至是极其糟糕的。这是对过渡的第一点认识,要理解清楚。

  到了20世纪70年代末、80年代初,也就是所谓的邓小平时代,虽然当时的主要领导人,包括胡耀邦、赵紫阳、万里和习仲勋等人,他们对政治体制没有一个很清楚的目标,但另一方面,就经济体制而言,他们却有着非常明确的目标。正是在这个背景下,出现了第二种“过渡”概念,这个意义上的过渡阶段,实际上说的是经济体制的过渡,就是要把原来从苏联引进的那一套体制演进到一个如果不是完全等同,至少是与西方差不多的市场体制。至于具体的改进方法,可以灵活调整,有时候是先从这方面改,有时候先从那方面改,或者说是先改农村,后改城市,先改农业,后改工业,但是中国要走向市场经济,而且这个市场经济体制是跟世界资本主义的市场经济体制是挂钩的,不是分开的,不是井水不犯河水的,这个大方向是明确的。这是中国对“过渡”的第二种理解。

  但是在1989年那场大的政治风波以后,这样一种理解受到了严重的冲击。自从1989年下半年以后,对于中国所谓的过渡已经不怎么提了,因为你要提过渡,肯定有一个过程。因为当时的很多人认为,中国走的这条路是跟西方市场经济体制不是一回事;在政治方面更是完全背道而驰,虽然政府的文件、党的领导人的讲话提到了“民主/高度民主”这样的字眼,但是措施里基本上没有这样的内容。这是我讲的第三点澄清。

  在这三点澄清以后,我要讲一个非常重要的caution,算是一个警示吧,那就是人类社会是充满着不确定性的,并不仅仅是因为中国是一个过渡社会才充满了不确定。任何一个人类社会,不管规模大小,都是不确定的。我认为,这既是对人类的巨大挑战,同时也是希望所在。假定人类对未来的东西充满了确定性,很多人就要自杀了,因为他知道自己肯定会完蛋,肯定会死,肯定会破产。无论是中国,西方比较发达的国家,还是非洲那些更贫穷的国家,也无论是这些国家原来是不是有过共产党领导的计划经济体制,在社会变化不确定这一点上大家是共通的,只不过后面的区别是很大的。对于那些已经建立了比较良性运转的、稳定的政治和法律制度,同时经济上已经有比较成熟的、现代的经济体制的这些国家和社会来讲,未来虽然也充满着不确定性,但这种不确定性是属于人类社会常规性的不确定性,而不是那些使人感觉到恐惧和担忧的东西。

  今天,人们到印度去,对那儿的现状都会持批评态度,尤其中国人去了以后,会觉得印度又脏又乱,基础建设也很差,但总体来讲印度还是一个发展变化非常迅速的国家。更不用说美国这样的国家了,它们的社会变化更快,像那些比我晚去美国十年甚至二十年的人,他们所描述的美国,包括那儿的大学和社会生活,跟我们当年看到的必然会有很大的差别。

  我们说美国社会的变化之快是惊人的,但是不会有那么多人会对美国社会未来的变化表示担忧和恐惧。只有在世界上少数一些国家和社会里面,对未来的不确定性更多的是和担忧、恐惧联系在一起。这样的国家和社会通常是一个曾经有着一两千年的古老的、延续性的社会,然而在过去几代人加起来也不过两百年时间里,发生过一次甚至好几次翻天覆地的急剧变化,而这些急剧的变化通常充满了牺牲,充满了破坏,因此给人的心理上带来太多负面的遗产,而中国恰恰是这样。以上是我对你第一个问题的回答。

  中国社会的变化是靠逻辑推导不出来的

  袁训会:但我认为,要想真正地去研究中国这样一个复杂国家,应当是件很不容易的事。对此,丁老师应该有不少感悟,在这儿能不能我们分享一二?

  丁学良:对于中国这样一个国家而言,有一件事是特别清楚的,那就是一个人要是想研究中国,不管是研究中国的哪一方面,经济也好,政治也好,社会也好,教育也好,科技也好,生态也好;全世界研究中国的这些专家,不管是华人还是白人还是黑人还是日本人,他只要五年没来过中国,心里就会没底。虽然有的人在公开场合还是以一个专家的名义在讲话,但是他心里没底。我讲这个话,是因为我自己就是这么过来的,我在中国大陆出生长大,出国的时候基本已经是一个成人了,二十来岁了。但等我在美国待了十几年,回国的时候我都不敢跟别人讲话了,因为我不知道怎么讲话了,中文是我的母语,所以不存在语言的问题,出现这种情况,主要是认识问题。

  从这个意义上来讲,中国这个社会最大的特点之一就是:它虽然是人类社会中最古老的、延续性最强的社会之一,但又是一个急剧变化的社会。有些变得越来越好,有些在倒退,有些基本上维持现状,你很难用一句话来概括。中国这个社会在某些方面是很怪的,是从逻辑上推不出来的。你要用一个逻辑来推中国的社会,我这儿讲的社会是一个广义社会,包括政治、经济、文化、人的心态、家庭、生态等等,你会发现按照一个逻辑来推的话,推不了几步就会发现,下面的情况就不是这么回事。中国1989年那一场悲剧以后,这个社会有些方面变得太快了,有些方面变得太慢了,有些方面变得好,很显著,有的方面变得好是非常微小的,还有一些方面甚至倒退,这是中国社会一个很大的特点。我是很实事求是的讲,不是像有的人讲话是语不惊人死不休,或者故意讲一些哗众取宠的话,我不会讲这样的话,我在北京这么讲,在华盛顿、东京、台北都这么讲。

  中国人接受信息的来源愈来愈多元

  袁训会:当然,在意识形态领域乃至学术理论界,对于现下的中国体制也出现了不少合理性的理论解释,如中国模式的独特性论述等等,不知道对于这类解释,丁老师怎么看?

  丁学良:你的问题里边提到了“意识形态”(ideology),那么在这儿呢,我想首先澄清一下对“意识形态”的理解。因为现在很少有人有我这样的背景,出国之前,某种意义上来讲,我是属于那种极少数独立(当然,所谓的独立也是没办法的事,因为我们那时候没条件接受正规教育)钻研过马克思经典著作的人,也就是说,我读到的马克思理论,不是教材上写的那样。回到你的问题,应该来讲,意识形态在马克思的原著中是一个非常负面的概念,一直到斯大林的时候,这个概念才包含正面的意思。在马克思、恩格斯的时代,这两位共产主义理论奠基人所说的“意识形态”就是骗人的意思(他们有时也用false consciousness这个词,“虚假意识”),只不过是一种统治阶级或者权势阶级通过精致的设计,构造起来的,用来误导和欺骗普通大众的伎俩,至少是蒙人的,misleading,是误导普通大众的意思。所以对马克思、恩格斯来讲,要讲革命的意识形态,这本身就像说“滚热的冰块”一样,是一种二律悖反,不能用这种术语,更不能讲先进的意识形态,因为意识形态本身就是误导人,是统治阶级制造出来的蒙老百姓的,不可能有一种进步的意识形态。只是到了斯大林时代,意识形态这个概念变得正义了,因为斯大林做过很多不好的事情,每每这个时候他就只能拿意识形态来蒙人、骗人,所以在回答你的问题前,我觉得有必要澄清一下对意识形态这个概念本身的认识。

  应当说,现在中国人的普遍素质已经同毛泽东时代天差地别了。这个天差地别的原因也是因为中国社会不断地改革开放,这是邓小平推动改革开放带来的客观效益,中国社会已经越来越变成世界的一部分。也就是说,中国人接受信息的来源多元化了,他们中能读不同外语的人也在不断增加,这样就使得很多人能够通过技术吸收那些中国官方传媒之外的信息,包括资讯、图像、报道、评论乃至谣言。

  还有一点千万不要忽视,那就是现在普通中国人能够频繁接触从海外回来的人,因为以前中国是不对外开放的,进来几个官方接待的外国人,根本没有机会接触普通老百姓,普通老百姓也更是没有办法和他们接触。现在情况不一样了,从海外回来的人太多了,我本人就是从海外过来的;再加上中国普通公民的出境旅游,不管是旅游也好,留学也好,打工也好,做生意也好,这种情况去年加起来差不多有一亿人次,今年肯定超过一亿人次。

  所有这些渠道都使得今天中国的普通老百姓,不一定是受过博士生、硕士生教育的高级知识分子,哪怕只念过几年书甚至包括那些还没念过书的普通农民,对整个世界的情况知道得都越来越多。如果没有对照,再聪明的人过了五年十年,也不知道是怎么回事。也就是说,只要有接近于真相的对照,人们是不会糊糊涂涂的,更不会轻易上当受骗,无论你这个意识形态做得怎么样精致,除非把其他独立的信息来源断掉,否则的话是没有更好的办法的。

  举个很简单的例子,前天我看了一篇报道,说的是北朝鲜有一个非法出境的女人,离开祖国的时候是22岁,她说虽然已经离开北朝鲜好几年了,但到现在为止,她还在反思为什么当年竟然能够被官方洗脑到那个地步?她在北朝鲜的时候所相信的官方宣传,那个官方宣传是什么呢?就是金正日是世界上最英明的领导人,英明到什么地步?他可以读到人心,就是你不要讲话,也能把你内心的一切看得一清二楚。意思就是说你哪怕口头上喊他“万岁”,而内心里对他不满,他都能一眼看出来。她说我们以前都相信这些东西的,一个人在领袖面前怎么能欺骗他呢?这个是“读心术”,是巫婆才有的本事啊!由此可见,信息来源的多元化是多么重要。

  有一类唱赞歌的学者是在“装睡”

  丁学良:中国现在的社会里完全不可能想象这样一种情况,一个社会只要有对照,有相对独立信息来源的对照,官方传媒中传播的不符合实际的东西就会很难达到他想达到的效果。

  如果说国内这些一味唱赞歌的学者,他们唱的那些赞歌比较符合事实的部分,我想人们也不会去反驳,但是不符合事实的部分,纯粹为了唱赞歌而唱,自己刻意去讲假话是不大会有效果的。很简单,如果你唱赞歌说中国现在环境很好,北京空气达到国际标准,你试试看!我们就要问一下为什么中国老百姓在这一点上不会被你蒙骗呢?就是因为他有独立的信息来源。在这之前,中国官方发布的空气污染指标,老百姓虽然自己也不舒服,但是听了也就听了,而当美国大使馆有独立信息来源的时候,一对照就不一样了。所以对照太重要了,没有对照,你的意识就被模糊掉了,对于什么是真,什么是假,什么是半真,什么是半假,什么是完全的离谱,没有明确的判断了。

  当然,这里我必须要加上一句话,唱赞歌的也不仅仅就是国内的一些人,也包括一些洋人和海外华人,这些人在有独立信息来源的情况下仍然这样唱赞歌,只能说明他们中的绝大部分是属于“假装睡着了”的人。有一句话说得太好了:“你可以唤醒一个沉睡的人,但是你永远唤不醒一个假装睡着了的人”。因为他没睡着,他心里很明白,我讲的最后这种情况是属于装作睡着了的人。比如有一个洋人,就在我们今天座谈的清华大学教书,他这些年来老是讲中国的政治和行政制度是meritocracy,是一个建立在德才兼备基础上的优秀体制。Meritocracy通常翻译成“贤能体制/英才管理”,选拔出来的官员不仅仅是能力优越,而且道德素质也优越。

  这个洋人在中国已经工作了很多年,每天都有机会听到读到看到中国有这么大面积的官员腐败,而且腐败的程度这么深,买官卖官、“边贪边升,越贪越升,越升越贪”、官商勾结、捞取百万千万甚至过亿的不法资财、当裸官、“我爸是李刚”,还有色情贿赂、包养N奶、公共情妇,等等等等。

  从近年来的几个大窝案,你就能知道许多官员是怎么提拔起来的,比如说,前不久的薄熙来帮派、刘志军男女团伙、徐才厚谷俊山现象,等等,已经被揭发出来的和即将被揭发出来,他们所有身边的铁杆分子都符合中国老百姓中间流传的一句话(我本人听到以后也觉得是最有道理的),就是说我们现在干部的提拔制度在很多地方很多部门,你给老百姓、普通民众、社会做十件好事得不到提拔,给上面(就是你的直接领导)做一件坏事马上就被提拔了。给上面做坏事就是给掌握了你命运的高层,不管这个高层是个县级干部还是市级干部还是部级干部,只要比你高的,做一件坏事马上得到提拔,比如把一个很好的项目给他的孩子,或者说把他的二奶、三奶从一个普通人马上提拔到一个副处级干部、正处级干部,或者给他家庭和亲戚批一块地,批多少亩地,然后你再去炒,你马上就会得到提拔。

  所有这些在中国的主流媒体上、正式文件上处处可见的案例,能够用在清华教书的那个洋人成天宣传的“贤能体制/德才兼备”解释吗?我们能够用meritocracy来为这样相当普遍的官员腐败现象贴标签吗?这个概念意味着官员们整体的升迁机制不仅靠能力强,而且靠道德水平高,靠对公共利益高度的负责任。用这个美丽动听的概念来跟多元化、多层次、多方面的监督和制衡制度作对比,试图论证meritocracy这种体制--其核心是不要自下而上、由外部对内部的监督和制衡--比世界上大部分人民提倡的参与型政体更优越。所以,这类洋人就是属于“假装睡着了”的,因为在每日每月每年那么多层出不穷的事实面前,他还是讲那么好听的话,给那种腐败泛滥的官员体系贴金,我们只能把他解释成“装睡的”,你是没办法叫醒这种人的。

  做社会科学研究最基本的品德是什么?到现在为止,过了很多年以后我的体会,也是我特别想跟年轻人讲的,中文也好,外文也好,从古希腊开始,就把美德讲成三种:真、善、美。我们一直跟人家讲我们的教育是要培养真善美的人,我们的社会文化都是要真善美。到了我这个年纪,我很坦率地来讲,从自己的专业研究,从自己读书,从自己的人生阅历,从自己接触的不同的人、不同的事,我感觉到真善美三个字中“真”是最重要的,也是最难的,没有真,后面的善和美是不可能实现的。

  做人做学问最重要也最难的是做到“真”

  袁训会:为什么您说“真”字最难做到?

  丁学良:我的体会就是真跟善、美不一样,善基本上就是做好事,你行善,不损害别人。美也是好的,观赏也好,造美景也好,你人很美,这对人是没有伤害的,是positive,不管这个positive是跟你有关系还是跟你身边有关系。比如你建了一个很美的花园,把环境弄得很美,不仅仅自己受益,旁边的人跟着也受益。但是“真”不一样,真在大部分时候是伤害人的,而且伤害的是既得利益者和权势阶层,因此真是最不受欢迎的,那些讲出真、追求真、宣扬真、维护真、推广真的人往往会付出巨大的代价,甚至丢失自己的地位和生命,因为真伤害到了人家的利益。这就是为什么我讲最难做的是真,因为真伤害了人家,同时它也是最危险的。很多人并没有要为自己获得好处的自身行为,但是他会为家里人担忧,为朋友担忧,为自己其他方方面面的事情担忧,因此他不得不在真上面打折扣。马上就会有人问我一句话说你是不是打折扣了?我当然打折扣了,我不打折扣的话,就会把自己认识的人都给得罪,就没有人跟我讲话了。真是最难的,同时我也认为做学术研究的人真是第一位重要的,哪怕你不能在一切时候一切问题上坚持百分之百的真,也要尽可能的往真去靠近,而不要为了其他的利益和好处远离真。

  得到这个认识是很痛苦的,因为我自己每天都生活在类似的挣扎之中,而且我很坦率来讲,我发现身边很多人在其他事情上都能够大体上经受考验,但是在真这一点上能经受住考验的人是相对来讲是最少的。这是一个悲哀的事情,而且我不认为人类社会在某一点某一年某一个事情能达到一个状况,就是说人们都能讲真话,都能真,因为利益在变化。

  我跟我的学生讲,做研究要尽可能靠近真,如果你发现你原来的认识、原来的结论禁不住真的检验的时候,哪怕你不承认你讲错了,你至少不要再去重复这个错误,不要再去维护这个错误,让这个事情过去,你不要用三个假来支撑你当时的一个假,然后你会用三十个假来支持前面的三个假,那你以后只会在假的路上走得越来越远。

  不要对民主制度抱完美主义心态

  袁训会:通过您前边聊的,是不是可以得出这样一个结论:现下中国过渡体制是不完美的,甚至是有不少问题的。

  丁学良:世界上没有完美的体制,欧美的民主制度已经慢慢的实行了两百年,也不是完美的,世界上只有相对毛病较少的制度,只有相对做事情比较有效的制度,要把所有好的要求都集中在一个制度里基本是不可能的,这还是我在海外念书、教学、生活、交往中很重要的体会。

  中国从来就没有过普选制,没有过广泛的民主和多党竞争的政治,所以,中国的社会里反倒对民主制度容易出现一种完美主义的心态。二十多年以前,我刚从美国回到亚洲的时候就讲,中国成功转型有很多障碍,其中一个很重要的障碍,它不一定是第一位的障碍也可能不是第二位的障碍,但是最重要的障碍之一,就是太多的人,包括一些受过高等教育的人,包括非常了不起的个人,不管他拥是企业家成就也好或者是科技成就也好或者文学艺术的成就,或者有英雄主义的行为也好,他们对民主抱有一种完美主义的心态。

  现在的民主制度根本就不是完美的制度,而且民主制度主要解决的问题不是效率问题,而是要尽最大可能去保障个人的权利,这个个人也有可能是复数的人,或者是其他什么方面相对的弱者。比如,有的人是因为教育程度弱,有的人是因为经济上不独立,有的人是因为民族关系上是少数民族,有的人因为性别是女性,有的人是因为年龄老或者小,有的人是因为肉体结构残障等等,这些相对的弱者,不管是单数的人还是复数的人,对他们不要有太多的伤害,同时这个制度长期运行下去,不要造成太多的破坏性,这才是民主制度最重要的一个优点,而在其他方面民主制度不一定比得过专制制度。

  民主制度下吵架很多,众议院吵,吵得不行,跑到参议院再吵,来来回回要吵好几轮的。中国哪能经得住这么折腾呢?中国的做法就是我一拍板,这个事情就过去了。可能在很多时候是拿民主制度的缺点和专制制度的优点比,专制制度最大的优点就是能很快决策,例如一个东西马上就要实行。问题是这个决策没经过讨论,很荒唐的决策也能做出来,而且越来越可能是荒唐的政策,因为好的政策要照顾各方面的利益,荒唐的政策只能照顾一部分人的利益甚至只能照顾自己家的利益。俄国制度搞到后来不是搞成那个样子了吗?就是这麽回事,这都是在我们眼前的。

  我讲的这些道理都是我切身体会的,不是书上读来的,在书上当然我也学到了很多东西,但是更多的是根据生活的经验得来的。

  中国的危机是串联到一起的

  袁训会:那么,在您看来,在这些问题中,今天中国遭遇到的最大问题或者说危机是什么?

  丁学良:很难讲是哪一个,中国的危机或者问题是串联到一起的,假如它仅仅是一个的话,反而好解决。

  袁训会:串联到一起怎么说?

  丁学良:串联到一起,举例来讲,我们就讲中国13亿人口,在很多重要的经济领域,经济资源的占有量都低于世界平均水平,这就是很严重的问题。但是这个问题,你是说通过纯粹科学的办法能解决吗?科学的办法很重要,但是这个科学肯定是解决不了的,学科学技术史我们都知道,科学技术常常得不到推广,尤其不能在生产或生活的一些层面上推开,往往并不是因为科学技术本身不能解决问题,而是因为要那样的推广,会伤害到很多基本利益,这个就会牵扯到政治、法律、道德问题了,牵扯到教育、文化的层次上来。

  所以,从这个意义上来讲,最最难办的头疼的都是串在一起的,因为串在一起的。我们不要指望在一个领域里的改革能收到普遍的效益,可能这方面你要改一改,哪怕这个地方改个三寸,那个地方改两寸,但是你不能指望一个领域里面的改革就能解决所有问题,最难的就是老大难问题。

  近年国内一所重点大学请我好几次,我都没去,后来我不好意思了,就答应去讲,要讲两堂社会理论课。他们的项目是社会学夏季高级班,实际我的兴趣主要是政治学,主要是政治社会学,我也不是想要研究什么人事制度政治学,我是研究重要的政治变化或者重要的政治腐败、重要的政治变化的社会基础,这是我的兴趣。你听我讲社会问题的时候,肯定提到政治学,你听我讲政治问题的时候,我跟政治学家也不一样,我并不是仅仅从那一个学科上去看这个问题,我会从政治、社会两者之间互动的关系来看待。

  从这个意义上来讲,我深切体会到中国最难的那一串问题是要通过很多领域里面的调整和改革,才能慢慢的缓解。只要改起来,我想就会创造新的机会,这些机会现在明眼人都在等,但是一旦启动改革以后,新的机会就会在演变的过程中产生,你千万不要以为人类的智慧能把很多东西都预见到。回到你的第一个问题,人类社会很重要的一点希望是未来是不确定的,只要启动了改变,就可能有新的要素产生出来,就会大大出乎你原来的想象。不要以为改一点中国就会怎么样怎么样,这种想法都是单一决定论,单一一个要素决定后面所有的东西。

  我今年夏天要去讲,我非常不赞同中国某方面一改以后会天下大乱,后来我就想苏联东欧,第一个共产党国家苏联共产党下台了,国家分裂了,到现在他们也带来很多正面的后果,但是这个并不等于说中国要进行重要的改革的时候不带来代价,世界上没有不带来代价的改进。为了一个更好的未来,为了下一代,下两代、下三代,都有必要去改变这些问题。中国的生态问题、人口问题、政治腐败问题乃至教育的扭曲问题,都是老大难问题,都是串在一起的。

  客观地讲 中国体制这些年确实有进步

  袁训会:您刚才提到了改革,那么,在您看来,在众多推动改革的因素里边哪一个更重要,比如是英明的领导人还是渐趋成熟的官僚阶层,抑或公民社会本身?

  丁学良:中国要有进步性的改革,政治上要有进步的改变,需要做所有这些东西,现在很难讲哪一个东西更重要,所有这些因素都动起来,在互动的过程中发挥作用。

  从这个意义上来讲,出现民间社会是非常非常必要的,但是很难讲它是第一位的,它可能是最基本的需要改进的地方之一,中国当然需要比较好的公民社会,公民要有依法抗争的权利,而不是去暴力抗争,不是拿个刀子去砍人。

  前述种种,只有在一个复杂的互动的动态系统里,才能导致一种比较持续的政治改进,这可能是比较靠谱的一种期待。至于哪一个领域先动起来,这个有很大的不确定性。人类社会的不确定性太大了,但是人们在分析的时候,又喜欢把事情讲得很明确、很确定,很多问题是来自于这两个层面。

  有一句话我非常相信,就是说一个人书读得越多,他了解的知识越多,他的智慧越高,他越是知道自己的知识和智慧不够。无知的人才最骄傲,因为他不知道知识是多么丰富,多么难穷尽,只有无知的人才会讲那些绝对的话,讲板上钉钉的话。

  20世纪的物理学最伟大的起点就是维尔纳·海森堡提出的“不确定性”原理,他讲的是宇宙中间最小单元都尚且不确定,何况具有这么复杂性的人类社会。我小时候本来的愿望是读理论物理的,后来文化大革命开始,没机会接受正规教育,但是只要能够读懂的那一部分我都会读,因为这个对人有启发。

  我到现在都认为20世纪最伟大的成就就是在20世纪一开始的时候确定的连宇宙当中最小的单元(unit)都是不可确定的这一原理,因为你观察它的本身就已经介入它了,就使得它不一样了。每一个观察人类社会的过程,都影响了你观察的对象和过程,所以很多事情是不确定的。但正是因为有不确定性,才有好的可能性,所以才值得我们每个人去努力,使出现的结果尽可能的好一点。

  我现在讲的话听起来比较理性、客观,很重要的一个原因是我“不是完全被国内的体制所压倒”。相反,如果我生活在这个体制之下,我的态度必然会有改变,或者我被它同化,得到好处了,就给它唱赞歌,或者受挤压了,那就会一肚子愤青情绪。

  为什么objective在中国会被翻译成“客观的”这个词,说的就是,你只有站在客人的立场上,而不是完全介入者,才能讲比较中立的话。你完全介入进去以后就不可能客观了,因为你的利益、态度和感情都是纠结在一起的。

  我每年来来回回地跑几十次,所以是比较客观的。我到国外去讲中国的时候也比较客观,我和洋人也好,和很少回来的华人也好,讲这些道理,我说你们觉得我在给中国的体制辩护,其实不是的,我就是客观地看中国体制,它确实也有进步,只不过有些进步太慢,还有为了一些进步付出的代价太高。

  举个很简单的例子,中国以前的收容遣送制度,经过几十年死那么多人,打那么多人,抓了那么人,最后废掉了。废掉以后,他还可以用其他办法来干这个事情,截访制度就是它的变种。当然在一个相对比较好的法律制度、政治制度下,也会发生冤狱,也会抓错人,判错凶,也会判错死刑,在香港也有,但是他们有纠错机制,纠它的时间不需要那么长,纠它的时候不需要付出那么大的代价,这就是区别所在。

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